To analyze China's inguinal, femoral, and abdominal hernia disease burden (incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990-2021, assess changing trends and age-period-cohort effects, and predict disease burden for 2025-2050.

Compile the disease burden indicators of inguinal, femoral, and abdominal hernia in China from 1990 to 2021, as recorded in the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study Database (GBD 2021 data). The trend of disease burden changes was analyzed using the Joinpoint software. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used for the analysis of age, period, and cohort effects. The disease burden situation from 2025 to 2050 was predicted through time series analysis using the SPSS software.

Joinpoint regression analysis showed that from 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of inguinal, femoral and abdominal hernia for overall, male, and female populations in China exhibited an upward trend. The disease burden was higher in males than in females. Infants, children, and the elderly experienced a higher disease burden. The APC model revealed that incidence rate first declined rapidly with age, then increased slowly, followed by another decline from 1990 to 2021. Incidence risk showed an initial increase followed by a decrease over time periods, and an initial decrease followed by an increase across birth cohorts. Mortality rate first declined rapidly and then increased slowly. Mortality risk decreased over both time periods and birth cohorts. Predictions for 2025-2050 indicate that overall ASIR and age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) will show an upward trend.

The overall disease burden of inguinal, femoral, and abdominal hernia in China remained substantial from 1990 to 2021. Predictions suggest rising ASIR and ASPR from 2025 to 2050, highlighting the critical importance of formulating targeted medical policies and implementing necessary interventions.